Private label groceries captured a record 23.8% unit market share in the first half of 2026, as the share of shoppers who buy only national brands fell from 21% to 10% in under a year — a collapse that promotional pricing alone cannot reverse.
The shift comes against a backdrop of accelerating consumer goods inflation and a wave of new policy pressures bearing down on food manufacturers, including 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports effective July 22 and a fourth attempt by Congress to ban intentionally added PFAS from food packaging.
Private Label Outpaces National Brands
Store brands outperformed national brands in unit sales in five of Circana’s six monthly reporting periods so far in 2026. National brand unit sales dipped 0.5% while private label rose 0.2%. PLMA president Peggy Davies called unit sales “the best measure of consumer choice,” adding that Circana’s midyear results “underscore the continued strength and growing appeal of private label.”
Zappi’s consumer data reveals a deeper structural change. Nearly 70% of consumers told the research firm they would accept fewer product options in exchange for lower prices. The strategic problem for national brand manufacturers is that this is not a loyalty gap that promotional pricing can close — shoppers are actively redefining what value means to them.
Inflation Pressures the Switch
Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index shows prices for everyday household purchases rose 0.70% in June alone, following 0.51% in May and 0.44% in April. Year-over-year, prices are up 3.4%, the highest annual rate in nearly three years. Low-income households have seen everyday prices climb 35.7% since January 2018, well above the 33.8% national average.
The consumer already switching down is doing so in an environment where each month brings a larger sticker shock than the last. That reality is pushing more households toward store brands even as manufacturers try to defend premium positioning.
Brazil Tariffs and General Mills Rebuild
The United States will impose 25% tariffs on a range of Brazilian imports beginning July 22, following a yearlong USTR investigation into unfair trade practices. The order exempts coffee, beef, oranges, and orange juice — goods officials say would disrupt supply chains. The tariffs are levied under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a different legal basis than the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February.
General Mills is simultaneously overhauling its entire supply chain network. On its July 1 earnings call, COO Dana McNabb said the current network was built for a lower-volume era and needs to be rebuilt for faster innovation and packaging flexibility. The overhaul is part of a $3 billion cumulative cost-cutting effort through 2030, with about $1 billion coming from improved business processes and new operating models. The company expects $750 million in savings in the fiscal year that started May 26.
The combination of new tariff costs and a network redesigned for lower demand suggests the old volume assumptions are gone. McNabb’s framing is a rare acknowledgment from a major manufacturer’s earnings call that returning to growth requires rebuilding the physical infrastructure of how product is made and moved — not just marketing spend.
PFAS Packaging Bill Returns for Fourth Try
Bipartisan legislation to ban intentionally added PFAS from food packaging was reintroduced in the House on July 7, 2026. H.R. 9593, the Keep Food Containers Safe from PFAS Act, would amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to prohibit food packaging containing the so-called forever chemicals. Representatives Debbie Dingell of Michigan and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania brought the bill back for the fourth time.
State-level bans are already enacted in Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico, among others. The bill has never passed, but the state patchwork it aims to preempt is already forcing compliance decisions regardless of what Congress does.
Compliance pressure is stacking. A PMMI survey of CPG executives found that only 7% reported no trade-offs when transitioning to sustainable packaging materials. The most commonly cited challenges were higher production costs and diminished product protection. Recyclable materials remain the top sustainability priority for most companies, particularly where retailers require their use, but cost is a persistent barrier for smaller brands. Emerging state extended producer responsibility laws are adding reporting obligations and fee structures tied to packaging materials, with more states expected to follow.
What Happens Next
Watch whether private label share keeps climbing through the back half of 2026 — if national brands cannot arrest the slide by fall, expect more manufacturers to launch or expand their own store-brand contract operations rather than fight the trend. The Brazil tariffs take effect July 22, so watch for price moves on affected imported goods and any manufacturer guidance updates in August earnings. On PFAS, manufacturers who wait for a single federal standard are already late; the compliance map is being drawn state by state, and EPR laws will keep expanding the reporting burden even if the federal bill stalls again.
— Isabella Morales, food desk, AXO News