China is warming at a rate of 0.31 degrees Celsius per decade, exceeding the global average and driving a cascade of deadly extreme weather events across the country, according to the China Meteorological Administration’s annual climate assessment released on Jul 2.
The Blue Book on Climate Change report reveals that China’s average temperature in 2025 ranked among the nation’s two warmest years since nationwide records began in 1901, with northern regions warming faster than the south and western areas outpacing the east.
Landmass Drives Accelerated Warming
Professor Benjamin Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong, attributes China’s faster warming rate to its vast continental landmass. “Land warms faster than oceans,” Horton explained. “Because China is a large continental landmass, it experiences stronger warming than the global average.”
The speed of warming matters critically for adaptation. “The rate of warming matters because societies, infrastructure, ecosystems and economies must adapt gradually,” Horton said. “The climate baseline itself is shifting so quickly that extremes once considered rare are becoming normal.”
Deadly Weather Events Multiply
The consequences of accelerated warming have manifested violently across China in recent weeks. Twin tornadoes tore through central Hubei province on Jul 6, killing at least 11 people and injuring hundreds. Residents described watching helplessly as people were swept into the sky. “It was all over in three to five minutes, but it dealt a catastrophic blow,” said one resident.
Typhoon Maysak struck Hainan before sweeping into Guangxi, leaving at least 39 dead as of Jul 9. A landslide triggered by heavy rain in Chongqing on Jul 17 killed eight people, with 34 still missing. In 2025 alone, 11 of 27 typhoons that formed over the northwest Pacific and South China Sea made landfall in China.
Heatwave Grips Multiple Regions
China issued its first national-level heat health risk warning of the year on Jul 14. Shanghai registered 37 degrees Celsius on Jul 15, while northwestern China faces temperatures as high as 44 degrees Celsius. Chengdu is experiencing highs of 37 to 38 degrees Celsius, with metro stations cordoned off as cooling shelters for commuters.
Urban heat island effects compound the danger. “Urbanisation and heat island effects contribute significantly to high humidity and temperatures,” Horton noted. “Rapid expansion of cities, concrete surfaces, and reduced vegetation make urban areas substantially hotter than surrounding rural regions.”
Shenzhen emergency services responded to nearly 40 heatstroke-related calls between Jul 1 and Jul 12, including 19 calls on Jul 11 alone. Authorities warned that current conditions make outdoor activities like hiking unsuitable due to severe heatstroke risk.
Adaptation Efforts Underway
Some communities are implementing cooling infrastructure. A residential complex in Shanxi province installed a high-pressure misting sprinkler system in 2024 that reduces surface temperatures by 5 to 8 degrees within minutes. The system covers all eight buildings in the complex, with over 200 atomizing nozzles on each rooftop.
What Happens Next
China’s warming trajectory shows no sign of slowing, and the gap between its warming rate and the global average will likely widen as greenhouse gas concentrations continue rising. The country faces mounting pressure to reconcile its climate adaptation needs with its emissions trajectory. President Xi Jinping told the United Nations last September that China plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent below its peak levels, but the current pace of extreme weather suggests adaptation costs will escalate before those reductions take effect. Meteorological officials continue issuing alerts for southern China, with heavy rain warnings and mountain flood risks persisting across Chongqing and Yunnan. The frequency of compound events—simultaneous heat, flooding, and storms—will test whether China’s infrastructure and emergency systems can keep pace with a climate that is reshaping faster than historical planning models anticipated.
— Rachel Greenwood, climate desk, AXO News